11月7日周四，好意思联储按期降息25个基点，下调联邦基金利率所在区间至4.5%-4.75%，但决议声明删除对于“在抗通胀问题上获取信心”的表述九儿 巨乳，或示意对12月暂停降息执开放派头。

好意思东当地时辰下昼2点半，好意思联储主席鲍威尔出席记者会，陈赞好意思国经济举座发扬苍劲，承认劳能源市集执续降和气“有一份通胀数据比预念念要高”，也明确表态好意思联储还会链接降息。

市集聚焦他会否就畴昔利率旅途表现出更多有本体兴趣兴趣的痕迹、是否点评好意思国大选对于好意思国经济出路的影响，以及特朗普潜在的减税、关税和支拨规划对好意思联储后续策略与监管轨制的影响。

开场白：奇迹市集不是显耀的通胀压力开首，若通胀降温停滞且经济强，不错更慢降息

在达成准备好的开场稿件中，鲍威尔称，供应条件的改善相沿了好意思国经济在畴昔一年发扬苍劲，好意思联储在达成充分奇迹和默契物价双重所在方面取得了过错进展。经济和劳能源市集依旧慎重。

他指出，新增奇迹速率照实较本年早些时候放缓，畴昔三个月平均每月新增奇迹10.4万东说念主，但可能受到10月份歇工和飓风的临时负担。恬逸率明显高于一年前，但在畴昔三个月有所下落：

“总体而言，一系列等闲的主见标明，劳能源市集的弥见谅状比2019年疫情爆发前有所缓解。劳能源市集并不是显耀的通胀压力开首。”

在评价通胀时，他称，“畴昔两年通胀率大幅下落”，9月PCE价钱指数同比增2.1%，更接近2%的央行遥远所在，但中枢PCE同比飞腾2.7%“仍然略高”，不外遥远通胀预期似乎仍保执默契。

他格外强调，好意思联储在“慢慢转向愈加中性的态度”时莫得预设旅途，将逐次会议依照数据、不停变化的出路与风险均衡作出“动态决议”，因为降息过快可能不毛通胀降温，降息过慢又可能过度削弱经济行径和奇迹：

“要是经济保执苍劲，而通胀率莫得执续向2%迈进，咱们不错更平缓地减少策略抑止（注：更慢降息）。要是劳能源市集有时走弱，或者通胀率下落速率快于预期，咱们不错更快地弃取行径。”

鲍威尔：特朗普不可令我罢黜或者降职，短期内大选对货币策略没影响，不排斥减速降息

在问答要领，媒体领先聚焦鲍威尔能否在特朗普第二个总统任期内“到手届满退休”。

被问了太屡次的鲍威尔反复声明我方不念念回应太多政事话题，但斩钉截铁地称，就算特朗普要求他辞去好意思联储主席一职，他也不会从命，而且法律不允许好意思国总统罢黜或者降职好意思联储高档官员。

当日稍早据报说念，特朗普可能会让鲍威尔链接引导好意思联储，直至2026年5月任期终结，特朗普担任总统技术曾频繁波折好意思联储和鲍威尔，称其削弱货币策略的速率不够快，不毛好意思国经济闹热。特朗普10月还称，好意思国总统应该有权参与利率决议，并有权对利率应该上调或下调发表褒贬。

鲍威尔也明确提到，短期内好意思国大选不会对货币策略产生影响，好意思联储也不会“料想、计算、或假定财政策略过火可能对经济的影响”。

他称今天降息后“策略仍具有抑止性”，再结合他提到“对抗通胀的回击还莫得终结”，以及好意思联储处在愈加接近中性利率的正轨上，不错推知他在提醒“好意思联储仍会链接降息”。

不外，好意思联储在策略声明中开放了很快将暂停降息的可能性，鲍威尔也称，无需为了保执物价默契这个职责而让通胀进一步降温，“跟着咱们接近中性利率，可能减速降息节拍是顺应的。”

他也再次重申，“好意思联储并莫得急急忙忙地要达成中性利率”，并发出劝诫称，在好意思联储寻求镌汰利率之际，政府的任何变动皆可能影响货币策略：

“原则上，任何好意思国政府的策略或国会制定的策略，皆可能跟着时辰推移产生经济影响，因此，连同无数其他身分沿路，这些经济影响的预测将被纳入好意思联储的经济模子中九儿 巨乳，并被沟通在内。”

在特朗普胜选后，市集也曾下调了对来岁1月的降息预期，更主流的不雅点是以为届时暂停降息，这一概率从一周前的44%升至54%，对12月再降息25个基点的概率则从77%小幅降至67%。

有分析指出，特朗普胜选激励了东说念主们对好意思联储可能以更慢、更平缓法度降息的料想，因为抑止行恶侨民和试验新关税的策略可能会推高通胀。同期，这也会激励东说念主们推敲好意思联储眼中既不抑止也不刺激经济增长的“中性利率”到底是若干。

还说了什么：12月会议前会有更多数据，仍能软着陆，好意思国赤字和财政策略是经济阻力

鲍威尔在问答要领还提到，奇迹市集尚未全面达成默契，好意思国劳能源市集链接降温，但法度“格外平缓”。商界以为，2025年的经济阵势将好于本年，但地缘政事风险偏高。薪资增速仍然略略高于与2%通胀所在相一致的水平：“咱们仍在野着更中性的态度迈进，关节在于正确的法度。”

在谈到通胀时，他承认“有一份通胀数据略高于预期”，但并不可令其牵记经济：

“总体而言，咱们对经济行径感到乐不雅。与此同期，咱们得到了一份通胀讲明，诚然不是很晦气，但照实比预期高了少量。

可是到12月，咱们将获取更多数据，比如还会有一份奇迹讲明、两份通胀讲明和多半其他数据，咱们将在12月的会议上作念出决定。”

他还重申，好意思联储依旧确信会达成“软着陆”，“确信咱们不错在达成苍劲奇迹的同期完成抗击高通胀的任务”，而且好意思国东说念主的遥远通胀预期仍锚定致密。

在谈到10年期好意思债收益率自9月好意思联储大幅降息以来飙升超70个基点时，鲍威尔以为好意思债收益率走高主要受经济增长启动，而不是货币策略启动：

“当今判断好意思国国债收益率的走势还言之过早，似乎债券走势并非由通胀高于预期主导，经济行径数据一直皆比预期的更苍劲。”

汤加丽

同期，好意思债收益率走高也不可幸免与特朗普政府畴昔大举发债、导致财政赤字愈发庞杂的预期联系，鲍威尔直言好意思国赤字不停上升和举座财政策略仍是经济的阻力，联邦债务限制不可执续：

“咱们的债务水平相对于经济而言并非不对适，而是这条旅途不可执续。在赤字庞杂的情况下，咫尺处于充分奇迹状态，而况展望这种情况将链接下去，因此处分（财政赤字）这个问题很紧迫，这最终是对经济的威迫。”

鲍威尔达成准备好的记者会开场白稿件原文如下：

下昼好。我和我的共事们仍然专注于达成咱们的双重奇迹所在，即充分奇迹和默契物价，以造福好意思国东说念主民。经济总体苍劲，畴昔两年在达成咱们的所在方面取得了过错进展。劳能源市集已从之前的过热状态降温并保执慎重。甘休9月份，通货彭胀率已从7%的峰值大幅下落至2.1%。咱们致力于于通过支执充分奇迹和将通货彭胀率归附到2%的所在来保执经济的苍劲。

Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. The economy is strong overall and has made significant progress toward our goals over the past two years. The labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state and remains solid. Inflation has eased substantially from a peak of 7 percent to 2.1 percent as of September. We are committed to maintaining our economy’s strength by supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to our 2 percent goal.

今天，联邦公开市集委员会决定弃取进一步措施，镌汰策略敛迹历程，将策略利率下调25个基点。咱们仍然确信，只有适当调治咱们的策略态度，经济和劳能源市集的苍劲势头就能保执下去，通胀率将执续下落至2%。咱们还决定链接减少证券执有量。在简要回归经济发展情况后，我勉强货币策略发表更多见地。

Today， the FOMC decided to take another step in reducing the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by 1/4 percentage point. We continue to be confident that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance， strength in the economy and the labor market can be maintained， with inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent. We also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings. I will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments.

最近的主见炫耀，经济行径链接稳步增长。第三季度国内分娩总值年增长率为2.8%，与第二季度概况沟通。弃世支拨增长保执韧性，缔造和无形金钱投资增强。比拟之下，房地产行业的行径一直疲软。总体而言，供应条件的改善相沿了好意思国经济在畴昔一年的苍劲发扬。

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter， about the same pace as in the second quarter. Growth of consumer spending has remained resilient， and investment in equipment and intangibles has strengthened. In contrast， activity in the housing sector has been weak. Overall， improving supply conditions have supported the strong performance of the U.S. economy over the past year.

劳能源市集情状依然慎重。奇迹岗亭增长速率较本年早些时候有所放缓，畴昔三个月平均每月新增10.4万个。要是不是因为10月份歇工和飓风对奇迹的影响，这一数字可能会更高一些。对于飓风，请允许我向系数受到这些废弃性风暴影响的家庭、企业和社区知道慰问。恬逸率明显高于一年前，但在畴昔三个月有所下落，10月仍保执在4.1%的低位。阵势工资增长在畴昔一年有所放缓，开放岗亭数目与求员工东说念主之间的差距有所缩小。总体而言，一系列等闲的主见标明，劳能源市集的弥见谅状比2019年疫情爆发前有所缓解。劳能源市集并不是过错通胀压力的开首。

In the labor market， conditions remain solid. Payroll job gains have slowed from earlier in the year， averaging 104 thousand per month over the past three months. This figure would have been somewhat higher were it not for the effects of labor strikes and hurricanes on employment in October. Regarding the hurricanes， let me extend our sympathies to all the families， businesses， and communities who have been harmed by these devastating storms. The unemployment rate is notably higher than it was a year ago， but has edged down over the past three months and remains low at 4.1 percent in October. Nominal wage growth has eased over the past year， and the jobs-to-workers gap has narrowed. Overall， a broad set of indicators suggests that conditions in the labor market are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019. The labor market is not a source of significant inflationary pressures.

畴昔两年，通货彭胀率大幅下落。甘休9月份的12个月内，PCE总价钱飞腾了2.1%；猬缩波动较大的食物和能源类别，中枢PCE价钱飞腾了2.7%。总体而言，通货彭胀率已更接近咱们2% 的遥远所在，但中枢通货彭胀率仍然略高。从对家庭、企业和预测者的等闲走访以及金融市集的主见来看，遥远通胀预期似乎仍保执默契。

Inflation has eased significantly over the past two years. Total PCE prices rose 2.1 percent over the 12 months ending in September; excluding the volatile food and energy categories， core PCE prices rose 2.7 percent. Overall， inflation has moved much closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal， but core inflation remains somewhat elevated. Longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored， as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households， businesses， and forecasters， as well as measures from financial markets.

咱们的货币策略行径以促进好意思国东说念主民充分奇迹和物价默契为双重奇迹。咱们以为达成奇迹和通胀所在的风险概况均衡，咱们护理咱们两方面奇迹各自濒临的风险。

Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. We see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as being roughly in balance， and we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our mandate.

在今天的会议上，委员会决定将联邦基金利率所在区间下调25个基点，至4.5%到4.75%的区间。进一次序整咱们的策略态度将有助于保执经济和劳能源市集的苍劲，并将链接鼓吹通胀进一步下落，也令咱们将慢慢转向愈加中性的态度。

At today’s meeting the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point， to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent. This further recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we move toward a more neutral stance over time.

咱们知说念，过快减少策略敛迹可能会不毛通胀（降温）的进展。同期，过慢减少策略敛迹可能会过度削弱经济行径和奇迹。在沟通春联邦基金利率所在区间进行稀薄调治时，委员会将仔细评估行将公布的数据、不停变化的出路和风险均衡。咱们莫得任何预设的阶梯，将链接逐次会议作念出决定。

We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time， reducing policy restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate， the Committee will carefully assess incoming data， the evolving outlook， and the balance of risks. We are not on any preset course. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting.

跟着经济的发展，货币策略将进行调治，以最佳地促进咱们达成充分奇迹和价钱默契所在。要是经济保执苍劲，而通胀率莫得执续向2%迈进，咱们不错更平缓地减少策略抑止。要是劳能源市集有时走弱，或者通胀率下落速率快于预期，咱们不错更快地弃取行径。策略也曾准备好支吾咱们在追求双重奇迹时濒临的风险和省略情趣。

As the economy evolves， monetary policy will adjust in order to best promote our maximum employment and price stability goals. If the economy remains strong and inflation is not sustainably moving toward 2 percent， we can dial back policy restraint more slowly. If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated， we can move more quickly. Policy is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate.

好意思联储被赋予了两个货币策略所在——最大抑止奇迹和默契物价。咱们仍然致力于于支执最大抑止奇迹，将通胀率执续降至2%的所在，并保执遥远通胀预期默契。咱们能否顺利达成这些所在对系数好意思国东说念主来说皆至关紧迫。咱们分解，咱们的行径会影响到全好意思各地的社区、家庭和企业。咱们所作念的一切皆是为了履行咱们的大师奇迹。好意思联储将养精蓄锐达成最大抑止奇迹和物价默契的所在。谢谢，期待推敲。

The Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy—maximum employment and stable prices. We remain committed to supporting maximum employment， bringing inflation sustainably to our 2 percent goal， and keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans. We understand that our actions affect communities九儿 巨乳， families， and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you. I look forward to our discussion.

风险提醒及免责条件 市集有风险，投资需严慎。本文不组成个东说念主投资提议，也未沟通到个别用户特殊的投资所在、财务情状或需要。用户应试虑本文中的任何意见、不雅点或论断是否适当其特定情状。据此投资，职守自夸。